There appears to be a great deal of expertise expressed by persons who were present at the 1977 fire which threatened Tassajara. The consensus of this expertise appears to be that the fire crept in then and it will creep in now. Based upon my own crash review of the fundamental science involved this reasoning appears to me to be flawed. This does not mean that it is more likely that the fire will be more severe and/or dangerous today; only that it cannot be assumed that it will be as benign as it was in 1977.
We should seriously question our continued reliance upon this historic anecdote as a predictor of the present behavior of this fire and the potential danger to persons and property at Tassajara. Of the myriad dynamics, variables and factors which potentate and exacerbate combustion and conductivity of wildfires, only one, topography, can be said to be identical in both cases.
Granted that the most important factor contributing to forest fire ignition is topography, which also contributes to issues related to rate/distance due to rising and falling over elevation changes. But once fire is ignited the meteorological variables become the most significant factors in determining its speed and severity. The air temperature, instability of the air column, and the saturation deficit at the lower levels are without doubt the most significant. The intensity of fires and the rate with which they spread is directly rated to the wind speed, temperature and relative humidity. Climatic conditions such as long term drought also play a major role in the number and intensity of wildfires. Accurate and timely weather information is vital to the planning and execution of strategies for suppressing wildfires. Since weather varies significantly over time it is not likely that the same conditions related to wind, humidity and heat were occurring in 1977 as now.
Fire risk and behavior also depend on the fuel properties such as moisture content. Context information on vegetation water content is vital for understanding the processes involved in initiation and propagation of forest fires. While the class and type of local flora has probably not changed, it should not be assumed that moisture content, growth area and biomass remain constant.
Therefore I urge those making the important decisions to consider that the fire we face today could act significantly different than in 1977.
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4 comments:
Ginger, you are the smartest dog I know. And one dharma truth is that everything changes. So I agree with you that it is essential that people don't get overly attached to 'what happened in 1977.' What's the appropriate response, right?
It seems those folks overly attached to 1977 had it right once again. Somehow your posts here, and comments elsewhere seem to reflect your need to stir the pot and garner attention, more than genuine concern. I can't help feeling that you are in more danger than any of the five at Tassajara. I hope you find a path to peace.
well, even though i am a cat, i am going to stand up for ginger here. i don't see ginger (or her human alec) as having a need to 'garner attention,' but rather bringing up important points and asking hard questions that needed to be asked. this is a genuine expression of concern, just as much as those who continually referred to 1977 as a way to remain calm.
in the end, we are all grateful that the five in tassajara are okay, and a deep bow of gratitude to them and all the others who worked so hard to prepare the land for this fire. may we all let go of judgment and live in the moment.
meow.
Wow Anonymous, your concern is truly touching. But factually you fall a little short.
The truth is that the folks attached to 1977 got it wrong, completely wrong. They predicted a slow creep and the fire came in hot and fast. This blog is the only one to have warned of the red flag conditions 24 hours ahead of the actual evacuation. No one was paying attention to the weather conditions which if you would read the post before disgorging your strained assocition with the truth, you would have seen this to be the case. This blog warned of the red flag before anyone else was even aware of it. Those "experts' from 1977 jumped all over me for being "alarmist" and then, how about that, exactly what I said came true. I realize you don't have the courage to disclose your identity but try not to make your criticisms so patently in err.
even for a dog, this is too easy!
Chicken Little (aka Ginger)
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